Thursday, June 26, 2014

Dallas ISD Trustees must demand data!

Dallas ISD Enrollment History up to 2014
(Click above image to enlarge.)
Increased public transparency for what is happening within DISD must be demanded by the Dallas ISD Trustees.  Record setting teacher turnover and reports of classrooms without teachers must be verified with monthly reports of days filled by subs, and/or days subs were needed but could not be located.  Such data must be a part of the superintendent monthly report to the DISD Trustees. 

Regarding the data on the above chart, see  http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2014/03/best-five-years-for-dallas-isd.html for a details & sources for this data.

As shown in the above chart, the growth in the Cumulative Promotion Index has almost stopped, the best predictor of future change. Not specifically shown above is the 500 student drop in 12th grade enrollment for the DISD Class of 2014.  The Class of 2014 will be the first class in 7 years that will be smaller than the previous graduation class!  It may be smaller than any class since 2009 once the final numbers are in.  How far the 2014 CPI will drop will not be known until November.
The history of 12th grade enrollment loss under Mike Miles, ultimately shrinking graduation classes, existed long before he came to Dallas.  After two years of normal 12th grade growth in his previous district, Harrison, that growth stopped in 2009.  The Harrison Class of 2010 enrollment then dropped 7%, the Class of 2011 dropped 18%, and the Class of 2012 dropped 11%.  Finally the Class of 2013 dropped 12%, but by that time Mr. Miles was in Dallas where 6 years of record 12th grade enrollment growth suddenly also stopped.   Within the year, the 12th grade enrollment for the Class of 2014 had dropped 6%!  This is the largest DISD 12th grade enrollment drop in decades!

All this data, both missing but anticipated, and that which we have, indicate DISD is heading for a disaster, with children involved and already suffering!

Monday, June 23, 2014

Changing School Culture: Four Steps

These thoughts were originally written in April of 2012 as only three steps.  It was during a time when paying attention to research was presumed to be an obvious component in school culture.

Sadly, since July of 2012, such attention to research appears to have become very selective inside DISD.  It is certainly no longer the driving force, if it ever had been, driving the changes within DISD.  The Dallas public must now repeatedly demand to see the research both for and against the changes that are being considered in DISD, and do it before the change happens!

The visibility of research must now be added as a fourth step, more urgently needed than ever, to help guide the changes within DISD.  Research must return to a critical center in DISD school culture.

The four steps are: 1) transparency, 2) parental involvement, 3) a move toward a more developmentally appropriate grade configuration with k-8 schools, and 4) public discussions and debates regarding the research surrounding planned changes within DISD.   All four steps are present now inside DISD to some extent or another, but three of the four (transparency, parental involvement, and dedication to research) are deteriorating under recent  DISD school culture these past 2 years.  The only progress is far too little and is happening in the area of k-8 school development, step 3 below.

1) Transparency

The old cowboy insult of “all hat and no cattle” is an all too accurate description of educational history in Texas. In 2000 such reporting became so bold that Houston actually claimed "zero dropout rates."  The reality was that far less than 50% of any 9th grade enrollment were receiving diplomas within 4 years.  The dropout rate was very far from zero, thus "no cattle!"

Fortunately many school districts are slowly moving away from such “all hat and no cattle” claims, but TEA recently made some of the boldest "all hat and no cattle" claims in the history of school accountability in Texas.  TEA claimed graduation rates that amounted to placing Texas among the group of states having the 4th highest graduation rates in the nation!  Fortunately business leaders in Texas, as well as academic leaders, were vigilant and publically challenged these unrealistic graduation rates.

In spite of what TEA is trying to do, absolute transparency is slowly being understood as the best alternative. Texas has led the way with the raw data about our schools and our students being placed online and annually updated at http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/adhocrpt/Standard_Reports.html.  Almost all the reports posted in this blog come from that web site. With more such transparency Dallas was making more very real progress through 2012 than at any time in the past 20 years!  Then the progress stopped.

Admitting and sharing the painful truths in our public schools is the only way to have a strong foundation for progress.

The most accurate, easy to audit measurements for a credible transparency are the number of students who enroll each year in each grade, combined with the number who graduate annually, and how many of those annual graduates are ready for college. Simple spreadsheets for each school and school district should include enrollment by grade and year, covering 10 years or more of such annual enrollments.  Each years numbers should include graduation numbers and percentages of those graduates who are college ready.  It would quickly show if progress is happening.

The Internet allows the accumulation and availablity of such data to explode. Dallas ISD is constantly taking advantage of that availability with results that are improving, and constantly need to improve. DISD does not yet have such a multi-year spreadsheet online and in a prominent place on the DISD web site.  Such a spreadsheet could look like this chart:
In such a spreadsheet cells for the measurements could be colored gray, like those above, when measurements are getting worse, and left clear when there is progress.  See how clearly the 5 years of record progress are outlined above.

Such a prominent spreadsheet on the DISD web site would make Dallas a national leader in educational transparency. No other major US City has such longitudinal, multi-year, transparency. DallasISD can lead the way!

Such a lack of more complete transparency also hides good news.

Significantly positive changes within DISD started 6 years ago, but received no publicity. Those positive changes happened when the 9th grade bubble began to disappear. The 9th grade bubble is caused when the 9th grade is larger than the 8th grade the year before. That is caused by large numbers of 9th grade students failing and repeating the 9th grade. Too many middle school students were not prepared for the 9th grade. As they fail the 9th grade enrollment grows due to students taking the 9th grade two or more times.

From 1996 through 2006 the average 9th grade enrollment in Dallas ISD was 33% larger than the 8th grade enrollment due to such failures. For the decade between 1996/1997 to 2005/2006 the average 8th grade enrollment was just over 11,025, and the average 9th grade enrollment was 14,727. That 33% 9th grade bubble began to disappear in 2006.   The difference between the 8th and 9th grade enrollment had dropped to only 8.5% for the Class of 2012.  Sadly some of that progress has been lost and now for the Class of 2014 that difference is up again to 10%, still much better than 33%, but a step back.

The 9th grade shrinking means more students began passing on to the 10th grade. Upper grade enrollment broke records and finally the Class of 2013 was the largest graduation class for DISD since 1981 with the highest percentage of 9th grade enrollment represented in the graduation class since 1984!  (See enrollment by grade numbers going back to 1996/97 in the chart above. )
Good things were happening in DISD!   We must go back to the progress that led to the Class of 2013.  Sadly the Class of 2014 was over 400 students smaller than the Class of 2013, the first drop in senior graduation class size in 7 years and the greatest drop in decades!  We must return to the progress that was happening! More complete transparency will expose all sides of DISD, the good and the bad.
 
2) Parental Involvement!

Parental involvement is the foundation for any cultural change within DISD. A project that has evolved to center on parents was started several years ago in one Dallas ISD middle school. This School Archive Project started as a focus by students on their own futures in letters they write to themselves for a time-capsule. Then in 2009 the most critical component was added: letters by parents to their child about their own dreams for their child. It is reinforcing parental involvement as never before.

Now entering middle school students start the year receiving a letter from their parents about their parental dreams for them in life. Yes, those dreams include education. These new students bring these letters to their Language Arts Class. They spend a week writing a letter to themselves about their own history and goals for themselves in middle school. Then both letters are placed into a self-addressed envelope and into the 500-pound vault bolted to the floor in the school lobby.

This vault is in a prominent place and under spotlights. Students pass it several times a day. At times they may be reminded of what their parent's letter says that is inside the vault. Imagine the conversations that the writing of these letters may have provoked between parent and child. This helps to make such priceless, private conversations more common. It documents them and saves them for history.

The last month of middle school this almost three year old letter is returned to students and to their parents. Everyone sees how things have changed since these letters were written. Parents and students write new letters, this time looking 10-years into the future. This time the letters are placed into the vault for the next decade. Photos are made on the day the letters are placed into the vault. Students and parents receive copies of those photos with details on the back for the 10-year class reunion. Everyone is reminded that at that 10-year reunion the returning students will be asked to speak with decade younger students in the school about their recommendations for success. They are warned to prepare for questions such as "What would you do differently if you were 13 again?"

This School Archive Project started in 2005. The graduation rate for Sunset High School, Class of 2006, was below 33%. Sunset received most of these students. Their graduation rate slowly started to rise due to this project, and many other positive changes in the high school including a dynamic principal. In 2009 they installed their own vault at Sunset, and that same year the other middle school feeding into Sunset installed their own vault. The graduation rate for the Class of 2011 was 62%. It is expected to be near 66% for the Class of 2012. It will probably be 70% or better for the Class of 2013. No other high school in Dallas has improved even half as many percentage points over the same period as Sunset!

The many changes at Sunset made a very real difference. But Sunset is the only high school that has almost all incoming students already exposed to the School Archive Project before they arrive, and ready to do it again. That difference may be what has helped to make Sunset the most improved graduation rate high school in all of DISD for the past decade.

Sunset High School Progress in Dallas ISD
Right-click on above image to enlarge and/or print.
It is the power of personal letters focused on history and the future, placed in a secure location of respect usually reserved for diamonds, gold, and money. It's a message about the value of history, the passage of time, hard work, and planning for the future.  See http://www.studentmotivation.org/ .

The value of the mentoring component is yet to be realized when the 10-year reunions start in November of 2014. The reunions will add to the cultural change. They may evolve into the largest single contributor to an ongoing, educationally focused, cultural change. The message former students bring back to decade younger students may become the most priceless factor in the improvement of our schools.

What would you do differently if you were 13 again?

This project starts with parents documenting their dreams for their children. This then helps their children, our students, to then focus on a more realistic future in a way that is easier to embrace, and change as needed. Such conversations need to be more common by parents and children.

 
3) Developmentally Appropriate Grade Configuration: change to k-8 schools
(Yes, close all middle schools!)

Debates over grade configurations surrounding middle school have gone on for as long as middle schools have existed. Research has now pushed that issue well beyond the debate stage.

A July 2011 Harvard University study has emphasized the urgency of an improvement for our public schools that parents need to study. This detailed and extensive research concluded (page 23): "Taken as a whole, these results suggest that structural school transitions lower student achievement but that middle schools in particular have adverse consequences for American students." If parents agree, they must demand changes in grade configuration, especially here in Dallas due to the publicly acknowledged issues with our DISD middle schools.

The Harvard study showed that in virtually all subjects the scores on standardized test were lower in middle schools than in K-8 elementary schools. Parents and teachers familiar with both settings will rarely be surprised by these findings.

This past November a powerful editorial was published by CNN giving a simple message: "By all accounts, middle schools are a weak link in the chain of public education."

The K-8 response to this "weak link" is gaining momentum. The number of  K-8 schools has almost doubled in the US since 2000 as over 1,000 middle schools have disappeared, or been re-purposed as K-8. Google news for K-8 and middle school.  You will find reports of school districts closing middle schools and changing them to K-8 elementary schools with very few exceptions. The reason is as simple as the statement a decade ago by William Moloney, then the Education Commissioner of Colorado: "K-8s are the place where everybody knows your name."

What better place to endure the uncertainties of puberty? Instead DISD is now forcing students entering the changes of puberty to move to a strange school with hundreds of other students from other schools also struggling to regain their self image as they change. It is no wonder that we have behavioral issues! Student performance then falls in DISD middle schools.

This past April the National Middle School Association changed it's name to the Association for Middle Level Education. They saw middle schools being closed in the US, and realized such separate institutions do not exist in the highest achieving school systems in the world, such as Finland. In such countries the elimination of the middle school transfer trauma appears to help in far exceeding US academic achievement while at the same time investing significantly fewer classroom hours. The name change reflected a more authentic focus on educating students ages 10 to 15. Will Texas public schools see what is happening? (See more links to articles on this issue here.)

Parents can study these factors and be the driving force behind helping DISD to slowly move to k-8 schools systemwide That process has already happened in one school, Rosemont Elementary in DISD, which is leading the way. Parents studied the issues and demanded the change. More schools will follow as quickly as parents can study the issues and continue to demand the change.

Such change will also strengthen PTA memberships as parents will be with the same PTA for three more years. There will be more of an investment in each k-8 school. They must be the best schools for the sake of the neighborhood!

 
4) Visibility and open debate of research
 
DISD continues to reference selective research and supporting data in the changes they have been recommending for our schools, but that effort avoids much more research and data that point the other direction.  This must change.
 
When policy changes as large at TEI, the Teacher Excellence Initiative, are being designed and considered, there should be public meetings where the research pointing both ways can be presented and discussed.  It must be a public debate well beyond the level of 3x5 cards.
 
Currently even the Gates Foundation, on whose research much of TEI is based, is now recommending that any usage of testing of students in teacher evaluations be placed on hold.  Can DISD ignore that request?  A more public dialogue on the research is needed.

 
**************************************

As to costs for these four changes, only the one for a movement to k-8 configurations would involve signficant costs due to potential building modifications. This k-8 change process could go slowly, as quickly as parental groups form and request such changes.  It could be worked into the normal building budget for DISD. Also, since Dallas County has seen a constant drop in birth numbers since 2007 there may not be the normal pressure for building new schools.  Such k-8 transitions could happen more easily.  Otherwise, especially by ignoring patterns present in national research, DISD could loose millions of dollars in multiple areas in addition to the loss of potential student achievement.

These four ongoing changes within Dallas ISD, if accelerated and reinforced, will create a high preforming urban public school system that truly becomes a national model.

Work wins school board election over money!

Working this past month to get Joyce Foreman elected as my areas DISD Trustee was an honor! Joyce and her supporters now need to take what we achieved and replicate it across Dallas so that DISD Trustees who truly represent the families using DISD are the ones in power! We must do this again and again! Joyce may have started something very big!   We must take back control from those who only have money but do not have hundreds of volunteers who believe in our schools.
Joyce Foreman Victory Celebration
Click on photo to enlarge.
DISD must return to active public transparency focused on the most current data.  Management decisions must be based on the most comprehensive and recent research available.  Public debates must happen when there are areas of conflict so that the research on both sides, if there is any, is known to the public. The public must be able to have dialogues with the decision makers that go beyond a 3x5 card!

We must demand more accountability so that the 6% drop in our senior class enrollment for the Class of 2014 is the last  such loss of students we have.

We must not allow what happened in Colorado to be repeated in Dallas!  Too many of the current DISD Trustees are not asking enough questions, the same trustees heavily supported by the PAC's, and who most often vote to blindly support Mr. Miles and his decisions.  Some of his decisions have been very good, but too many are destroying DISD.

Watch the student attrition rates.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Separate but Equal Regulation, from Charter Schools to Districts?

The concept of separate but equal has cursed progress in U.S. education for generations.  It allowed generations to grow up under segregated school systems.  Only 43 years ago Dallas was just beginning to move away from separate but equal beliefs with the start of integrating the Dallas ISD.   The process exposed much about Dallas that was not pretty, which continues to this day.

Here is a 43 year report on the history of enrollment in DISD since 1970:
Dallas ISD enrollment & graduation statistics 1970 to 2013 by race.
Click on above image to enlarge it.
Taking the separate but equal mindset, the same one that helped create charter schools, and spreading it to whole school districts, is not progress! 

Why do regulations public schools work under need to be different in different places?   Do children benefit?  Separate but equal did not work in 1960 and will not work in 2015!

All public schools, that is any schools receiving public money, should function under the same accountability standards and the same high levels of public transparency.  Any variation from that destroys the equity formula that has made countries like Finland excel!    Home rule only takes the issues we are already facing with charter schools and multiplies them.  It takes from the attention our students demand.  

Friday, June 20, 2014

Data & Concerns inside Dallas ISD

This is a growing list of data and concerns about Dallas ISD.  Additions, corrections, and critiques are welcomed.

1) Teacher turnover has exploded over 100% since 2012, possibly to a turnover rate even above 30%!*  Evidence of this was seen during the Adamson High School presentation by Mr. Miles on 6-17-14.  He spoke about increased efficiency in teacher hiring.  The same numbers clearly show that teacher positions that need to be filled have increased from 1,019 the first year he was in DISD in 2012, to an estimate of 2,200 or more this year.

2) Principal turnover has also increased until, according to  multiple sources, only one third of current principals have more than 3 years’ experience as a principal!  Direct documentation of this report is needed.
3) Student attrition is growing at the high school level until DISD now has the smallest high school enrollment in 5 years.*
4) The Class of 2014 is the first graduation class in 7 years to be smaller than the previous class.  The Class of 2014 may be so small that it is the smallest graduation class in 5 years!*
5) Student achievement has also not improved well as reflected by the 21 schools in Destination 2020.  Only 3 of these 21 schools met their first year goals!
6) The idea of a "home rule charter district" will do little to change these facts until DISD also does other changes that can be done now, without "home-rule."
7) The 5 most productive years of improvement in history within DISD were from 2008 through 2012 with one of the most rapidly improving graduation rates in the nation for any urban school system.  That progress ended in 2012 due to numbers 3 and 4 above.
If we want to improve DISD such data as this cannot be ignored. Most of this data can be found on the Dallas ISD Data Portal or on the TEA web site.  DISD must return to the progress being made 2008 through 2012.
*This student and teacher attrition data mirrors what happened the last 5 years Mr. Miles was superintendent in Harrison School District Two in Colorado.   High school enrollment went down 25% with 12th grade enrollment dropping over 32%.  Teacher turnover also exploded under Mr. Miles in Colorado, very similar to what is now happening in Dallas ISD.  Beyond grade improvements associated with reduced student populations in Colorado, and allegations low scoring students were pushed out, there was no sustained student achievement gains documented.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

2014 Dallas ISD Graduation Rate Numbers

While the claim by the Texas Education Agency that the Dallas ISD Class of 2013 had a graduation rate of 84% is inflated by 20 percentage points, DISD did have wonderful progress 6 years in a row, through the Class of 2013 that totaled about a 20 percentage point increase.  But that progress has stopped!

In November of 2013 DISD knew that the 12th grade enrollment for the Class of 2014 was 500 students less than the Class of 2013, but little was said publicly about this enrollment drop.  The Class of 2014 had the lowest DISD senior enrollment since the Class of 2010.  Due to new end of course exams it is possible the official number of diplomas given out, when that number is available, may be pushed back to the Class of 2009.

If this were not a repeat of the constantly lower 12th grade enrollment patterns that plagued Harrison School District 2 in Colorado under Mike Miles,  Dallas would have much less to be worried about.   But Harrison lost 1/3 of their senior enrollment under Mr. Miles!

Dallas Enrollment History 1996 to 2014 with Graduation Rate Calculations
Click on image to enlarge.
Below are DISD Senior enrollment and diploma numbers from 2007 to the present from the above chart:

Dallas ISD Graduation Class Growth 2007-2013, ended in 2014
Click on image to enlarge.
Notice that the annual growth in senior class size almost ended with the Class of 2013 before it went negative 6% with the Class of 2014.  Was DISD Trustee Carla Ranger truly the only trustee with enough questions about Miles' record in Harrison that she was the only one not to vote to hire him?   Where are the trustees who voted to keep Mr. Miles when multiple problems were investigated and exposed last September, now that he is also clearly repeating in Dallas ISD what he did in Harrison?

The DISD Trustees who continue to ignore the data surrounding Mike Miles' history in Colorado and the damage being done in DISD, must be replaced!  DISD certainly needs to have a method to recall such trustees!