Dallas Mayor Leppert working on dropout rates!

The work of Mayor Leppert is increasingly impressive.

I was at a meeting recently when Mayor Leppert very accurately spoke of the dropout crisis Dallas is facing. He described the dropout rate as "56% to 61% depending on the source of the statistics." He was speaking of the percentage of the 9th grade enrollment who do not make it to graduation. It was the first time I had ever seen a Dallas leader give such accurate numbers for our dropout crisis!

The graduation classes for Dallas ISD for the past 8 years, 2001 through 2008, had an average of 14,816 classmates enrolled in their 9th grade classes. Yet the average number of diplomas given out at the end of 4 years of high school, after that 14,816 enrollment in the 9th grade, was only 6,433 during these 8 years. This means the average graduation rate for the past 8 years has been only 43.4%. That also means that 56.6% of our 9th grade students were missing at graduation. (www.studentmotivation.org/dallasisd.htm)

It is very painful and hard on our city to admit how bad the dropout problem is. Fortunately it appears we finally have a leader who is facing this truth. Now change is finally possible! Our children, and our city, will be the ultimate winners!

Mayor Leppert sees that vision. He is willing to admit the hard truth of current dropout numbers. That is the only way to begin to work to change them so our children ultimately win!

Other positive news is that the 9th to 10th grade dropout rates at Pinkston and Sunset have actually gone down over 25% over the past 3 years! The power of the School Archive Project is slowly being manifested. In 2008-2009 it is planned to have 6 more Dallas ISD schools start School Archive Projects.

There is very good reason to believe that the two schools who receive the majority of students who have been involved in the Archive Project will achieve a 50% graduation rate with the class of 2010.

The percentage of students making it from 9th to 10th grade has improved over 10% since the Archive Project started. That improvement should provide for those increases to continue through graduation. The class of 2009 may be close to the 50% graduation rate and possibly even make it.

Only from 35% to 45% of the students at these two schools are Archive Project students. If we can get Archive Projects going at the two other middle schools feeding into Sunset and Pinkston we may see graduation rates well above 50%.

"See you in 10 years!"

Think back to when you were in middle school. With rare exception there was no expectation you would ever see your middle school teachers again unless you had the good fortune to be in a small community within which the teachers also lived. Middle school was something to “get through” and never look back.
Now, imagine you had worked on a letter during your middle school years documenting your life and plans for the future. You had then placed that letter into a vault bolted to the floor in your middle school lobby pending a class reunion 10 years off in the then-seeming distant future. When you said goodbye to your teachers as you left for high school some of them said “See you in 10 years.”
How would such a send off have changed your views of school?
Knowing of the planned 10 year reunion, and that you may be seeing your teachers again, is it possible your work in high school, and then maybe college, would have been affected?
Now, imagine you are a child with an 87% probability you are poor enough to be on the free school lunch program, your Mom and Dad, who probably do not live together, never graduated high school, and few people, if any, were even pushing you to graduate high school, much less college.
How would such a send off have changed your views of school and what you may achieve?
I value your thoughts,
Bill Betzenbbetzen@aol.com

This is another way to look at the same statistics and hopefully make them easier to understand. This chart is focused on those students who make it from 9th to 10th grade and how that percentage has improved in recent years at Pinkston and Sunset. Hopefully this is an easier to understand bar chart. It has been used to replace the other chart on the percentage of loss that was originally used.

The progress being made needs to be clearly understood.

Revolution in Progress!

This bar chart shows the amazing progress these past three years at the two high schools in Dallas which receive the large majority of Middle School Archive students. Pinkston and Sunset used to be listed among high schools with the worst dropout rate statistics for Dallas ISD. If the pattern established these past three years at Pinkston and Sunset continues for another year they will have moved to be among the top half of Dallas ISD high schools with the lowest dropout rates! Something good is happening at Sunset and Pinkston!

For the 11 years prior to 2007 the average percentage of enrollment loss between 9th and 10 grade was 36.9% for all of Dallas ISD high schools. In 2007 that average went down to 32.1% for all of Dallas ISD. Progress is being made everywhere! However at Pinkston and Sunset combined that average was even better, falling below 30%! These numbers can all be verified by studying the spreadsheet that can be downloaded from http://www.studentmotivation.org/DISDenrollmentbygrade1996-2008.xls to provide statistics for all of Dallas ISD. To see the enrollment statistics for Sunset and Pinkston go to http://www.studentmotivation.org/PinkstonSunset.html.

We are making progress in Dallas ISD! The only danger is the possibility that the 2008 Bond election on May 10th will not be approved by voters. That would set us back.

New Evidence Archive Project is working!

The Texas Education Agency in March released on their web site the 2007-2008 enrollment data for schools in Texas. From this data the enrollment data for the two high schools (Pinkston and Sunset) that Quintanilla Middle School feeds into was selected and studied going back for the past 4 years. It showed a consistent pattern for both high schools:

1) Initially in 2005-2006 9th grade enrollment went up at both high schools. That freshman class included members from the first Quintanilla class to write letters for the Archive.
2) For the next two years at each school 9th grade enrollment went down - probably indicating that fewer students were failing 9th grade each year at each school.
3) Additional indications that fewer were failing 9th grade each year is found in the fact that 10th grade enrollment went up every year during this same time at each school.

These numbers indicate something good was happening for students at each of these schools. A study selecting out for Quintanilla students at each of these schools is needed to verify that they were the source for most of these positive enrollment changes over past 4 years. That is being requested.

The value of focusing students onto their own futures and their own achievements appears to be working!

The spreadsheet containing these numbers for these two schools can be downloaded from www.studentmotivation.org/PinkstonSunsetenrollment04-08.html. Please let me know of any errors seen.

4-19-08 Presentation on School Archive Project

The Middle School Archive Project will be described as one of the presentations at a community meeting at 10 AM on 4-19-08 at the Pleasant Mound/Urban Park United Methodist Church at 8301 Bruton Rd. in Dallas.