Reverse Swiftboating, making Dallas ISD's achievement disasters since 2013 look good.

In February of 2012, recorded by the Dallas Observer, at http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/mayor-mike-rawlings-gives-dallas-isd-board-central-staffers-a-lesson-in-marketing-101-7104526, is an article titled "MAYOR MIKE RAWLINGS GIVES DALLAS ISD BOARD, CENTRAL STAFFERS A LESSON IN MARKETING 101." 

It helps explain why Mike Miles supporters pulled out the statistical fabrications from Education Research Group (ERG) and their analytics to help provide deniability for the failures that are obvious in DISD achievement data since 2013. See the preparation for such tactics in the description of this February meeting in 2012:

"Before the night was through, Blackburn would introduce "one of my special buddies," Mayor Mike Rawlings, who asked to remove his "mayor's hat" before delivering a lengthy monologue on ways to polish DISD's rotten apple. But before that, Blackburn turned over the floor to Merrie Spaeth -- the same woman who captained the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's branding campaign and who served Craig James's accomplice, for lack of a better word, in getting Mike Leach fired at Texas Tech. Much of her presentation consisted of a series of ads and viral video clips intended to remind the board that "negative words" are bad because they're "memorable" and "positive words" are good because they're .... positive? Said Spaeth, if you use "positive words," well, then, "People will hear what want them to hear." (All of which sounded very, very familiar.)"

Does the use of the complex unauditable ERG algorithms sound like the same type methods that guided the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's branding campaign? All they had to do was create a minimally credible "hook" for Mike Miles' defenders and alleged "reformers" to hang their hat on. But they will never meet in a public forum to discuss the issues!

The Dallas Morning News article "Fact check: Was the DISD miracle real?" was exceptionally mild in pointing to the manipulations by ERG, but did not swallow it all either. See www.dallasnews.com

DISD massive achievement failings since 2013 have been hidden by a deniability campaign probably directed by the exact same people who ran the original Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign.

How does that help our students?

See the ERG web site at http://educationresourcegroup.com/ and study it closely.

Dallas ISD - 18 years of improvement and two of decline

Today Mr. James Ragland had an opinion piece published in the Morning News following 25 years of DISD Superintendent History that is linked here.  I took that list of superintendents and imposed it on the 20 year history of the Texas/DISD Student Achievement Gap.  That gap is a measurement of how far below the average for the State of Texas the achievement for Dallas ISD is.  Over the first 18 years of these 20 years we virtually cut the gap in half.  Then two years ago a record setting decline started.
Two more years in DISD like the last two years and the entire achievement gain since 1995 will be gone!

Texas/DISD Student Achievement Gap Chart 1995-2015

The above chart came from the data below:

Texas/DISD Student Achievement Gap Spreadsheet 1995-2015

While Mr. Ragland's article covered 25 years of history, it was only 20 years ago that the Texas Education Agency first published the Snapshot used to provide 95% of the above data.

Benefits of Pk-5 transition into Pk-8 in Dallas ISD

(My opinion piece on Pk-8 schools was published 9-24-15 at http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20150924-bill-betzen-dallas-isd-should-lean-into-pk-8-model-for-success.ece.)

Behavior problems go up over 400% in Dallas ISD from 5^th grade into the 6^th grade, and remain that bad until high school and 9th grade. This graph shows how bad the behavior problems get. They improve in high school immediately:

Benefits of K-8:

1. The chance of a student having a close and positive productive relationship with a teacher increases.
2. Behavior problems go down to less than 1/3 of what happens in normal middle schools.
3. Student achievement goes up. Harvard research showed that the same as 6 months of more learning happens in a k-8 school that does not happen in a separate middle school.
4.  Students are near their homes, walking to and from school, therefore more school involvement happens in a neighborhood k-8 school.
5. Parents are more involved for longer with their child and their school.
6. Upper grade students assume the role of mentors and leaders for the younger students on campus.
7. Students never go through that dangerous change into middle school when there are months when nobody in the school knows their name.   It’s a dangerous time, made worse by normal puberty changes.  Many learning opportunities are lost in separate middle schools.

See the research that has collected.  It all points to the value of Pk-8 schools: http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2012/02/separate-middle-schools-vs-k-8.html

Due to the problems in virtually all Dallas ISD middle schools, the following petition is now being completed and signed by parents in West Dallas schools who want their schools to become k-8 schools:

Dallas ISD Parent Petition to change their k-5 school into a k-8 school

If you want to use this petition and insert the name of your k-5 school into it and begin the process of changing your child's school into a k-8 school, email bbetzen@aol.com for a digital copy.

See the history leading up to the above petition at http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2015/09/west-dallas-2015-disd-bond-election.html

Class of 2015 SAT scores may be lowest in 20 years!

Texas has at least a 20 year history of terrible SAT scores that just got worse according to this week’s report in this week’s Morning News at http://educationblog.dallasnews.com/2015/09/sat-scores-in-texas-hit-new-low.html/.  The Texas Class of 2015 SAT scores were a massive drop for Texas!

If you go to https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_226.40.asp you can see a chart on the SAT scores by state on years from 1996 through 2013.  Texas is now in even worse shape compared to the rest of the nation than at any time on this listing. Texas was never better than 10th from the bottom.  That was the Class of 1996.  We went down from there!

The Class of 2001 was 5th from the bottom.
The Class of 2006 was 8th from the bottom.
The Texas Classes of from 2011 to 2014 were all 5th from the bottom except for the Class of 2013 which was 6th from the bottom.

Here is the chart for the Class of 2014 SAT scores by state:

SAT scores by state for the Class of 2014

Texas must admit that we do not have schools that come near being average in the US. They are below average. The class size and teacher preparation issues statewide are keeping Texas back!

Is Texas at the bottom now due to this weeks news about dropping SAT scores?  Does Texas now have the WORST SCHOOLS IN THE NATION?

Here is the same chart with additional data as to incarceration rate and the levels of school funding added:

How school funding affects schools across the US

The good news is that Texas tests a greater percentage of our students than 29 states.  Of those states, 24 test 18% or less of their students!  Obviously these states are all competitors for last place as they do not have their data being collected.

We in Texas should find little comfort in that. 

West Dallas & 2015 DISD Bond Election

Please help spread this message about this meeting Saturday:

==== Meeting below led to the meeting 9-12-15 above ======

The 9-9-10 meeting went well.  Now for the next meeting about more details on k-8 education and transition, hopefully with Rosemont parents who love their k-8 school.  We may have a meeting all in Spanish as well as translators at all meetings.

Full room at 9-9-15 Anita Martinez Rec. Center meeting on DeZavla & 2015 DISD Bond Election

================ Archived is below ============
Attend 9-9-15 meeting at 6 PM at Anita Martinez Recreation Center, next to DeZavala Elementary, to hear the confirmation that DeZavala will NOT BE CLOSED! But we must ask why this plan was ever made to begin with.

The photo below is of about 1/4th of the people who attended the 9-3-15 community meeting at Carr Elementary about the possible closing of both Carr and DeZavala.  (Trustee Blackburn is back row on the left side.)

A similar gathering for the DeZavala Elementary community will happen next Wednesday, 9-9-15 at 6 PM at the Anita Martinez Recreation Center next to the DeZavala Campus.  The main purpose of this meeting as advertised is to present the Pk-8 alternatives.  Here is one presentation of what the benefits of a Pk-8 transition would be for West Dallas.

======= Just confirmed 9-8-15, NO West Dallas schools will be closed!  More details at 9-9-15 meeting ====== 

===================== Background ========================

Months ago, with minimal public input, if any, DISD Administration claimed the volunteers on the Future Facilities Task Force (FFTF) came forward with recommendations that would devastate the West Dallas Community east of Hampton Road.

There are 7 elementary schools that feed into Edison Middle School and then Pinkston High School. The FFTF is recommending that two of these 7, Carr and DeZavala, be closed and the children moved into a new K-8 school possibly to be built on the current Pinkston site.  There are many questions about this plan:

1) Why would DISD want to close two schools well located inside West Dallas neighborhoods that have served nearby homes in the community for generations and leave the entire community east of Hampton Road without a public school near their homes?

2) Why would DISD want to close two of the most well-utilized, almost filled to capacity schools in West Dallas?

3) Why would DISD want to close two of the schools in the best condition and least in need of repair according to the Parsons Report? Other schools in the Pinkston Feeder Pattern had much lower utilization and are in much worse shape.  See chart below.

4) Why would DISD want to close schools with priceless City Recreation Centers next door to each of them as a critical resource?  There is even a swimming pool at one.

5) How could DISD have made such plans with minimal if any community input?

What is the reasoning behind these plans? 

Below is data taken from the 8-5-15 plans published by the Future Facilities Task Force that illustrates the data in the above questions: 

Again, the next meeting to confirm that neither Carr nor DeZavala will be closed is this Wednesday, 9-9-15, at the Anita Martinez Recreation Center next to DeZavala Elementary starting at 6:00 PM.   Information about the benefits of Pk-8 schools will be shared so community can decide.

This copy of the meeting notice includes a map of this area of West Dallas:

Map of DeZavala and Carr attendance areas in West Dallas

==================== 9-7-15 update ========================

Conflicting message have been received with one community leader saying that Michael Koprowski, the member of Superintendent Hinojosa's Cabinet in charge of Transformation and Innovation, said that neither Carr nor DeZavla will be closed.  Many are now trying to get that allegation verified.

The two members of Superintendent Hinojosa's Cabinet were at the 9-3-15 meeting with Trustee Blackburn.  All of them were speaking as if the closing both schools was still being considered. They also all affirmed that community desires would be paid attention to in the decision making process.  It was very clear 9-3-15 that none of the 30+ adult community members present wanted Carr closed, only improved and probably transitioned into being a Pk-8 school. 

Due to these conflicts the following email was sent to Michael Koprowski on 9-5-15:

---

From: BBetzen@aol.com

To: MKOPROWSKI@dallasisd.org

Sent: 9/5/2015 9:34:31 P.M. Central Daylight Time

Subj: DeZavala and Carr Closing?

Mike,

There appears to be great confusion about the plans for Carr and DeZavala Elementary Schools.   Are they being closed?

It was clear in the documents the Task Force was releasing from June through 8-5-15 that such closing was the plan.  What was the thinking behind that plan?

Then I saw the 8-21-15 update with that closing taken off.  Then at the 9-3-15 Carr Elementary meeting it was back on the table according to all DISD staff present, Wanda Paul and Dr. Bravo.  However, they seemed to accept the request of the majority present that Carr be transitioned into a Pk-8.

But we left that meeting thinking it was still on the table for DeZavala.  See http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2015/09/west-dallas-2015-disd-bond-election.html for a blog containing notices being circulated in the media and copied for parents in the DeZavala neighborhood.  Hopefully we will have a very good turnout.  

What is the truth?

What was the justification made, and by whom, for the closing of these two valuable schools?

Bill Betzen

Dallas ISD Achievement Data

www.dallasisd.us

Dallas, Texas

Mr. Koprowski has responded that NO schools in West Dallas will be closed.  Hopefully he will also tell us why this was ever on the table for discussion.

Education Funding, Incarceration, Texas, & a DMN Editorial

Today the Dallas Morning News had a good editorial joining with 600 districts in Texas to say that school funding must improve in Texas.  The editorial was very logical and is online at http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20150831-editorial-its-groundhog-day-school-finance-edition-in-texas.ece .

An editorial can never document all the damage from underfunded schools, but the connection to incarceration should have been mentioned.  States spending the least on education have prison populations that are almost three times greater per capita than states with well funded schools.

Relation between state spending on education and incarceration rates

While people can argue the "correlation does not equal causation" argument, would you move to any state to take advantage of the lower school taxes?

Dallas ISD making more progress than most DFW districts

Below is a chart that compares DISD with 4 other DFW area districts serving similar populations and with student achievement gaps compared to the percentage of students passing all statewide tests they take each year.  This chart compares DISD with Duncanville, Fort Worth, Irving, and Cedar Hill ISD's:

Study the above chart and you quickly see that Dallas ISD made very solid progress for most of this decade.  It was only surpassed by Cedar Hill ISD for whom the past two years are the worst on the chart, but the achievement remains since 2005.

This chart does not include the 2015 calculations that show the DISD Student Achievement going down again another 2 percentage points in 2015, ending the most improved status.  Such calculations are only projections and require verification when the 2015 Snapshot for Texas is posted in July 2016..

Below is the data, highlighted in yellow, that was used to create the above chart along with the calculations required.

Annual Student Achievement relative to Texas by year for 10 DFW districts 2005 to 2014

You can see with the last line in the chart above that the average of all these schools made a full percentage point gain in shrinking their achievement gap.  Dallas ISD, even if you include the loss from next year, will still be within that level of gain.   However, note that the large improvement in charter school achievement trying to catch up to ISD's was included.  Without that, the average of ISD's alone would have been negative.

Here is the poverty history during these same years for each of these districts and charters:

Percentage of students with free and reduced lunch in each of these districts 2005 to 2014 

 Notice that poverty increased in every district.