Dallas City Council Redistricting Process Report

(The plan below was updated 5-13-11 and that plan is being submitted formally to the Commission. That final plan can be seen at http://dallasredistricting2011.blogspot.com/

The plan below is left here for anyone interested in the evolution of the final plan.)

=================================

The first Dallas City Council Redistricting Committee meeting with the public was 04/26/2011 and went well. About 12 speakers all said basically the same thing: Do Not split my community/do not gerrymander.

Today, after two hours on the Dallas City Council Redistricting Computers, the following initial and very crude map was made:

Please just click on this image to see a larger copy.  This is ONLY a draft and needs very much work.

Here is an example of the type of statistics that are produced, and change every time you move population from one district to another.

The above spreadsheet only has data for five of the districts which is a very crude estimate. This is the type data that changes by the minute as you work on your version of the Dallas City Council District maps changing district lines.  Go to City Hall and give it a try!  Help redesign Dallas to be an ever greater city!  See information on the process at http://dallascityhall.com/council_briefings/briefings0810/2011Redistricting_CouncilBriefingFinal_08042010.pdf
The last page at this link has the details on the computers in Dallas City Hall Room L1AN.  To schedule an appointment just call the Dallas Redistricting offices at 214-670-5417. The official Dallas City Hall Redistricting web site, complete with a multitude of maps, is at http://www.dallascityhall.com/Redistricting/maps.html

As Dallas City Council Redistricting process evolves we have a priceless lesson for our students in democracy.

These postings on Redistricting will now, 4-30-2011, be moved to a site dedicated to redistricting. The issues of expanding the high school graduation rate should not loose importance or be confused with redistricting. Go to  http://dallasredistricting2011.blogspot.com/ to see more postings on Redistricting for Dallas City Council.
===========================================
The History of Dallas continues to unfold and provides for our Dallas ISD students a priceless lesson in democracy. Like all cities, Dallas has a history of the unequal distribution of power with minorities and the poor being generally under-represented in positions of power. With the greater transparency being provided to processes such as redistricting, that lack of balance is slowly disappearing.  You must make your own judgements as to how far we have yet to go.  Here is a demographic spreadsheet on the current Dallas City Council makeup and how it corresponds to the demographic makeup of Dallas as reflected in the most recent census:

Here is a second spreadsheet only counting the Dallas City population for those age 18 and above.

If you see an error in either of these spreadsheets please do not hesitate to email bbetzen@aol.com.  Accuracy is critical. The data from which these spreadsheets are made is from http://www.dfwinfo.com/ris/census/2010/PL.asp?geo=city&area=19000 .

Unless there are errors in the above spreadsheets, the simple conclusion is that the past decades growth in our Hispanic residents in Dallas has led to a significant imbalance on the Dallas City Council makeup. While that imbalance must be corrected in the redistricting process, unnecessary gerrymandering for partisan purposes will only be counterproductive as has been documented at http://www.studentmotivation.org/GerrymanderedDallas/.  We must achive balance without risking the breaking up of our communities of interest.   See Texans for Redistricting Reform and this video on youtube produced by the Tea Party in support of A. J. Pate and his methods that minimize gerrymandering, voter confusion, and the resulting voter apathy, while also meeting the Voting Rights Act requirements at the same time.

A report from the Texas House, 11:00 AM, April 1, 2011

It is a sad day in Texas History to be watching HB 1 slowly move through amendments toward passage. The testimony is heart rending as a minority of legislators work to stop the process of cutting services to public school children, the elderly, and the disabled. 

Many groups representing the elderly, the frail, the handicapped, and school children, are all walking about in the halls of the capitol.  A few are here in the galleries. But a large group, almost 90% men, all in suits, are standing outside the House chambers in the lobby.  I presume they are lobbyists. It appears they may hold the power, not the other groups walking about the capitol mentioned above.

Solution to Texas Deficit Crisis

After many revisions the message to be used has been reduced to one statement:

A challenge is made for anyone to find an error in this statement.  The http://www.texasflattax.com/ site has the data upon which this statement is based.

The cause and a solution for the Texas budget crisis

After many months, and pages of discussion on how to avoid the painful and damaging cuts in services and education in Texas, there is one conclusion that is repeated more and more often in many different settings throughout Texas. The regressive taxation system in Texas is to blame.  Here is one sign that will be seen around the Texas State Capitol during future gatherings:

Is there a more accurate way, in less than 14 words, to describe the cause for the pain and loss that the elderly, disabled, and children of Texas are facing?

The Texas budget would balance without cuts if the rich paid 2/3 of the effective tax rate paid by the poorest 20% of Texans.  See www.TexasFlatTax.com.

Final Report Card on Dallas ISD Board Budgeting in 2011: Graduation Rate changes 2012-2016

On March 24, 2011, the Dallas ISD Board will consider some of the most consequential changes possible relative to future graduation rate progress within DISD. They may take actions to lay off more than 500 teachers.

As indicated on the "Dallas ISD Report Card for 2011 Budgeting" below, the past 5 years have shown record breaking progress in raising the graduation rate within DISD.  The DISD Class of 2010 set a 20+ year graduation rate record!  Over 50% of the full 9th grade enrollment of 2006-2007 was reflected in the number getting diplomas with the Class of 2010!  This is the first time DISD has gone above 50% in this graduation rate measurement in over 20 years!  The indicators for the future are that this number will continue to grow at least through 2013! The five measurements used in this graph are as follows:

1. The ninth grade bulge reduction is the percentage of 8th grade enrollment reflected in 9th grade enrollment. Yes, 9th grade enrollments in Texas are usually much bigger than the 8th grade enrollments.  This is the called "the 9th grade bulge," students repeating 9th grade due to poor middle school preparation and support in high school, often until they just drop out. As the bulge shrinks the percentage of 8th grade enrollment reflected in 9th grade enrollment grows, as has been happening for 5 years in DISD.
2. The percent of last yrs 9th grade in 10th is another indicator of the 9th grade bulge as students leave the 9th grade. As the bulge shrinks this number increases.  DISD now has the smallest 9th grade enrollment, and the largest 10th grade enrollment, in over 20 years!
3. The Promotion Rate is the 12th grade enrollment as a percentage of original full 9th grade enrollment. It is the measurement used by John Hopkins University in their nationally known "Dropout Factory Study." The progress in DISD is wonderful and the number of Dropout Factory high schools in DISD is the lowest in decades.
4. The Graduation Rate as calculated here is the number of diplomas granted as a percentage of full 9th grade enrollment.  It is not to be confused with the "Graduation Rate" numbers given out by both DISD and TEA. Those numbers include corrections from coding by clerks in each school so as to document valid transfers both into and out of our schools.  The measurement in this chart only counts full 9th grade enrollment as compared with the full number of diplomas given, with no such corrections by coding clerks.
5. The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) rate calculation, is the most timely and predictive of these five measurements. It is calculated in the identical manner as the Graduation Rate above, using the four transitions toward graduation: 9th to 10th, 10th to 11th, 11th to 12th, 12th to graduation. The difference is that each of the transitions used in the CPI calculation is from a different student group so that all four transitions happen within the same calendar year and not one group spread across 4 years. Consequently the CPI is much more timely with all calculations used reflecting what is happening within the most recent year in a school or school district.  It is also more predictive since three of the four groups measured have not yet graduated and will contribute to future graduation rates as well.

Here is the graph reflecting these 5 graduation rate measurements over the last 5 years in DISD.  What will this same graph updated 5 years from now with then current data say about the decisions made in 2011 in DISD?

The anticipated loss of hundreds of teachers endangers the progress made over the past 5 years.   Hopefully the updates that will be made to this chart in 2016 will not be a report card reflecting declines or setbacks but continued progress.

Graduation rates rise due to the positive relationships of students with teachers. Fewer teachers mean less potential for such positive relationships. Crowded classrooms lower graduation rates.

The ultimate responsibility for this crisis is with the Texas Legislature.  The www.TexasFlatTax.com is a record of those issues.  A bill now in committee, Texas House Bill 354,  could eliminate the deficit by sharing the burdens more equally among all Texans. We have work to do in Austin to protect our students, and the future of Texas. 

To see spreadsheets used to create these charts go to www.studentmotivation.org/texas for Excel copies, or study the progress that is demonstrated in the copy below:

Click on the above image to make it larger.

82nd Texas Legislature Report Card on Education

Texans need to think of ways to evaluate the success of the 82nd Texas Legislature, now in session, regarding the planned budget cuts in education.   There are now 4,933,600 children in Texas schools.  We have a critical obligation to be vigilant and maintain the wonderful progress of the last 5 years!

Here is a suggested format for one report card on the effects of the budget work of the 82nd Texas Legislature on education.  It is a graph of the progress of the past 5 years with space provided to fill in the blanks as these same measurements are documented over the next 5 years.   How will the 82nd Legislature do? You may click on the above chart to see a larger image of it, print it out (landscape format), or email it to share with your legislator, or with your friends also working to help communicate the issues with our legislature.

The Excel format 1997-2011 enrollment by grade spreadsheet for all Texas children used in these charts can be downloaded from http://www.studentmotivation.org/texas/.

We must put this crisis in perspective:

The Texas school funding crisis is only the smoke.

Almost 50 years ago I was waiting in a grain truck north of Hereford in a wheat field on my dad's farm. I was waiting for the combine to fill up for the next dump. The smoke I suddenly smelled is like the educational funding crisis!  While potentially deadly, the smoke was caused by the fire in the subble in front of the truck.  That fire is like the Texas state taxation system.  It is the real problem!

You cannot have a state taxation system that taxes the poor at a percentage of their income (12.2%) that is four times the rate (3%) at which the rich are taxed!  School funding is only the smoke, deadly, but still just the smoke!

The problem with this analogy is that the Texas state taxation system crisis is nothing new or sudden!

See http://www.texasflattax.com/.

Bill Betzen
bbetzen@aol.com