Dallas ISD "Home Rule" and Information Sources

The following links provide information from different perspectives on the "home rule" petition effort now under way within the service area for Dallas ISD:

http://www.supportourpublicschools.org/about/ is the web site for Support Our Public Schools (SOPS.) Under "Resources" are multiple links that help explain the 1995 law under which this effort is happening.  The first question under FAQ's has the following wording that gives reason for concern: "Only through discussions with parents, teachers, and education and community leaders can we identify changes that will free us from the cookie-cutter approach of Austin, and allow us to operate our schools in a manner that better suits our children and our communities."    Does not that wording remind you of the wording used 50 years ago to justify "separate but equal?"

The central flaw, repeated constantly by both SOPS and by Mayor Mike Rawlings,  is that they describe DISD in terms of a snapshot in time, not progress over time.   Such static measurements always place DISD in a negative light!   The public was never told how badly DISD was doing for decades!  As recently as 2006 DISD staff were claiming in public that DISD had single digit dropout rates when at the same time 60% of 9th grade enrollment was not present at their class graduations.  The dropout rate was much closer to 60% than the rates below 6% that were claimed.  That is why the current graduation rate that is just now passing a valid 60% graduation rate is both terrible, due to the work we still need to do, and a wonderful celebration, due to the monumental progress made within just 8 years!   Any reporting on DISD must report multiple year and show changes over time.  Then, at least from 2006 to 2012, DISD looks good.  Sadly, since 2012, the numbers are going back down.

http://www.dfpe.org/ is the web site for Dallas Friends of Public Education, a group of professionals, parents, and DISD staff who have several hundreds years of experience within DISD among them.  They are against this effort and have collected multiple documents on their web site documenting the multiple reasons for such concerns.

CASE, the Coalition for an Accountable System of Education, is an association of mainly African American Professionals representing well over 500 years of experience within education, mostly within Dallas ISD, who have voted unanimously to take action against the "Home Rule" efforts.   They organized a powerful press conference uniting other organizations in speaking out against "Home Rule" the morning of 3-26-14: http://www.dallasnews.com/news/education/headlines/20140325-coalition-of-minorities-teachers-opposes-dallas-isd-home-rule-effort.ece

The most powerful collection of data on the "home rule" effort to date is by Professor Julian Vasquez Heilig from the University of Texas. It was only released 3-27-14. It is published online in multiple locations including his own web site at http://cloakinginequity.com/ , and specifically linked here.    The Dallas Morning News published the Heilig study at http://educationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/03/report-by-ut-professor-questions-motives-of-support-our-public-schools-questions-whether-home-rule-is-necessary.html/

While there are multiple meetings happening across Dallas, the biggest one I know of as of 4-5-14 is the one planned for 4-7-14 7PM at Salem Baptist Church where both sides of the "home rule" issue will be presented.   Here is the flier advertising the event:

NOTE:  NOTICE WAS RECEIVED THAT MAYOR RAWLINGS WILL BE THERE AT 6:00 pm TO SPEAK DUE TO AN ENGAGEMENT AT 7.  THE REST OF THE 7pm PROGRAM WILL GO AS PLANNED.

4-7-14 7 PM meeting at Salem Baptist Church
Click on to enlarge and/or print.

Unanswered questions killing Dallas ISD "home rule" effort

Last night there was an overcrowded meeting with 70% of the people standing and/or unable to even get in the room at Preston Royal Library.  Many left in frustration unable to get into the room.  The meeting was tense with too many questions unanswered.  People were angry.

Support Our Public Schools North Dallas Meeting 3-20-14



Support Our Public Schools North Dallas Meeting 3-20-14

Based on what reportedly happened last night at the two other SOPS meetings in South Dallas and Pleasant Grove, the "home rule" effort is dying due to inability, or refusal, to answer basic questions:

 

1) What specific changes, impossible in the current system, are wanted?  Why are those changes not being specifically pursued?

2) Who will pay for the operations and professional support of the 15 member commission?  Taxpayers?  Dallas Redistricting Commission, with a MUCH simpler task over a much longer time period, cost over $500,000!

3) HB 5 is new with many more alternatives for schools.  Why this rush before HB5 alternatives have been better tested?

 

There are too many unanswered questions. We are witnessing the death of this misnamed "home rule" effort.

Best Five Years for Dallas ISD Graduation Rate: 2008-2012

Best Five Years for Dallas ISD Graduation Rate on Record: 2008-2012
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

The above chart contains data taken from the two charts below that together cover the past 18 years.  One confusing factor is that the above chart contains a sixth measurement that the first chart below did not contain: the comparison of current 12th grade enrollment with current 9th grade enrollment.  This measurement is a short hand way to look at school enrollment and know how their graduation rate is doing.   See more details below these two charts.



Click on either of the above charts to enlarge them and/or to print them. 
Please note that the CPI measurement for the Class of 2013 is lower in the above chart than it is in the first chart above.  This is due to two different counts for the 12th grade enrollment for 2013.  The DISD Data Portal gives a count, that is 50 students higher than the TEA count.  The Data Portal count was used in the third chart, immediately above.

Record Setting Dallas ISD Graduation Rate Progress 2008-2012, then it stopped!

1.      From 2007 to 2012 Dallas ISD enjoyed the five most progressive years of achievement in memory!  While DISD "college ready" rates edged up far too slowly, all of the graduation rate measurements soared!  Here is a 2008 report given to the DISD Board the shows the plans made in cooperation with Dallas Achieves for DISD.  They will sound very familiar.  2008 was the first year of 5 record years of progress!

2.      This combination increased the number of college ready graduates over 60% from 1996 to 2012, during years that Anglo-non-Hispanic enrollment in Dallas ISD dropped 60%.

3.      Dallas ISD graduation rates improved faster than the rest of the state of Texas in all demographic groups served from 2007 to 2011.  See the set of 12 graphs posted on the Dallas ISD web site in 2012. They are linked from the bottom of the page at the first hit when you google "Dallas ISD's graduation and dropout rates"

4.      Since 2012, under Mike Miles, the graduation rate progress has stopped.  This is illustrated by 6 measurements related to graduation rate and student movement on the above chart, and the fact that this year DISD suffered the greatest drop in 12^th grade enrollment suffered in 29 years!

When any of these six measurements are in a cell with a red, or grey, background in the chart that means the number has gone down and progress has been lost since the previous school year. 

Six measurements: row 6 to row 11 in the first chart above

·         Row 6: “% 9^th Grade Bulge Gone” reflects how well 8^th graders are prepared for 9^th grade work, and how well 9^th graders are managed, so as to not repeat 9^th grade.   For over 30 years the so-called “ninth grade bulge” has cursed school districts across Texas, especially urban districts.  For decades DISD would have only 11,000 students in the 8^th grade but would then have more than 14,000 9^th graders due to failures.  This bulge was slowly eliminated from 2007 to 2011! That progress stopped during the 2012/13 school year! It appears DISD is going backward according to measurements for the current 2013/14 school year.  The formula used is the 8th grade enrollment as a percentage of 9th grade enrollment (8th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 7: “Last year’s 9^th now in 10^th” reflects the reality that for decades most dropouts never made it to the 10^th grade. That is no longer true! DISD passed the 70% barrier in 2009 for this measurement for the first time, and has never gone back that low. This is a measurement that continued to improve though this year.  It is now over 89%!  The formula used is 10th grade enrollment as a percentage of the 9th grade enrollment (10th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment). 

·         Row 8: “Current 12^th as % 9th" is a short-hand measurement of how a school is doing with their graduation rate.  Just compare 12^th grade enrollment with 9^th grade enrollment at any school any time.  The bigger the difference the greater the problem.  For decades DISD had total senior enrollment that represented less than half the 9^th grade enrollment.  DISD passed this 50% barrier during the 2007/08 school year, zoomed up to 73.8% by 2011/12, but has now reverted back to pre-2010 levels! The formula use is the current 12th grade enrollment as a percentage of current 9th grade enrollment (12th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 9: “Promotion Rate” is a measurements widely used by the John Hopkins University Professor John Balfanz and colleagues who established the term “Dropout Factory” back in 2007 using this measurement formula.  At that time all DISD non-magnet high schools were classified as “dropout factories.”  That is no longer true due to significant progress made! The formula used is the current full 12th grade enrollment as a percentage of the original full 9th grade enrollment the year that cohort was in the 9th grade (current 12th grade enrollment/original full 9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 10: “Graduation Rate” passed the 50% barrier for the first time with the Class of 2011.  Due to the progress eliminating the 9^th grade bulge, the 60% barrier will probably be passed this year in DISD unless progress deteriorates more than anticipated.  The formula used is the number of diplomas given out as a percentage of the original full 9th grade enrollment the year that cohort was in the 9th grade (Diplomas given/original full 9th grade enrollment

·         Row 11: "CPI - Cumulative Promotion Index" is the most valuable measurement.  It’s the most timely, complete, and predictive.  It shows what is happening now, and what may happen in the near future. The CPI only uses measurements collected within one calendar year for each of the four student groups in any high school: 9^th graders moving to 10th grade, 10^th moving to 11^th, 11^th moving to 12^th and 12th graders who graduate.  The DISD CPI rose from 40.7% for the Class of 2006 to 66.1% for the Class of 2012!  After six years of constantly higher CPI measurements, the 3.6 percentage point drop to 62.5% for the Class of 2013, a measurement lower than any class since 2009, is a stern warning that things are not well now in Dallas ISD.  (CPI also dropped over 15 percentage points under Mike Miles in Harrison!)  The formula only uses enrollment and graduation numbers from the current 12 month period comparing last years enrollment with this years in the following formula: (current 10th grade enrollment/last years 9th grade enrollment) x (current 11th grade enrollment/last years 10th grade enrollment) x (current 12th grade enrollment/last years 11th grade enrollment) x (last years graduation numbers/last years 12th grade enrollment) = Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) for last years graduation class.

If there are any comments or questions about any of the above data please email Bill Betzen at bbetzen@aol.com.   Your comments are valued.

3-19-14
Bill Betzen

Dallas ISD Record Setting Progress 2007-2012 was stopped in 2013!

From 2007 to 2012 Dallas ISD enjoyed the five most progressive years of achievement in the memory of anyone now living! 

Dallas ISD Progress from 2007 to 2012 that stopped in 2013!
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

While DISD "college ready" rates edged up far too slowly, all of the graduation rate measurements soared!  This combination increased the number of college ready graduates over 60% from 1996 to 2012, during the same years that Anglo-non-Hispanic enrollment in Dallas ISD dropped 60%.

Dallas ISD graduation rates improved faster than the rest of the state of Texas in all demographic groups served from 2007 to 2011. This is well documented by a set of 12 graphs posted on the Dallas ISD web site in 2012.   They are linked from the bottom of the page at the first hit on the DISD web site when you google "Dallas ISD's graduation and dropout rates"

Sadly this monumental progress ended in 2012.  Since 2012 the rate of progress has reverted to a struggle similar to the one DISD was having prior to 2007.   This is illustrated by tracking the ups and downs of 6 different measurements of student movement in the above chart.  It covers each academic year for the past 12 years.

When any of these six measurements are in a cell with a red, or grey, background that means the number has gone down and progress has been lost since the previous school year.  Notice that the years from 2007 to 2012 were filled with 29 out of 30 measurements that were all improvements from the previous school year!  Both before 2007 and since 2012 the mixture of positive and negative measurements is mixed about 50/50.  The 5 years from 2007 to 2012 were the most productive years for graduation rate progress in the history of DISD!

Since 2012 it appears this progress in Dallas ISD has ended.

Six measurements from row 16 to row 21 in the above chart:

Row 16: “Bulge reduction - last year’s 8th as a percentage of current 9th” is a measurement that reflects how well 8^th graders are prepared for 9^th grade work, and how well 9^th graders are managed, so as to not repeat 9^th grade.   For over 30 years the so-called “ninth grade bulge” has cursed school districts across Texas, especially urban districts.  For decades DISD would have only 11,000 students in the 8^th grade but would then have more than 14,000 9^th graders due to failures.  This bulge was slowly eliminated from 2007 to 2011! That progress stopped during the 2012/13 school year and it appears DISD is going backward according to measurements for the current 2013/14 school year.

Row 17: “Percent of last yrs 9^th grade in current 10^th” reflects the reality that for decades most dropouts never made it to the 10^th grade. That is no longer true. DISD passed the 70% barrier in 2009 for this measurement for the first time, and has never gone back that low. This is a measurement that continued to improve though this year.  It is now over 89%!

Row 18: “12^th as a percent of 9th, all same year" is a short-hand measurement of how a school is doing with their graduation rate.  Just compare 12^th grade enrollment with 9^th grade enrollment at any school.  The bigger the difference the greater the problem.  For decades DISD had total senior enrollment that represented less than half the 9^th grade enrollment.  DISD passed the 50% barrier during the 2007/08 school year, zoomed up to 73.8% by 2011/12, but has now reverted back to pre-2010 levels!

Row 19: “Promotion Rate: 12^th grade enrollment as a percentage of original full 9^th grade enrollment” is a measurements widely used by the John Hopkins University Professor John Balfanz and colleagues who established the term “Dropout Factory” back in 2007 using this measurement formula.  At that time all DISD non-magnet high schools were classified as “dropout factories.”  That is no longer true due to significant progress made.

Row 20: “Graduation Rate: Diplomas as a percentage of original full 9^th grade enrollment” passed the 50% barrier for the first time with the Class of 2011.  Due to the progress eliminating the 9^th grade bulge, the 60% barrier will probably be passed this year in DISD unless progress deteriorates more than anticipated.

Row 21: "CPI Cumulative Promotion Index" is the most valuable of all six measurements.  It’s the most timely, complete, and predictive.  It shows what is happening now, and what may happen in the near future. The CPI only uses measurements collected within one calendar year for each of the four student groups in any high school: 9^th graders moving to 10th grade, 10^th moving to 11^th, 11^th moving to 12^th and 12th graders who graduate.  The DISD CPI rose from 40.7% for the Class of 2006 to 66.1% for the Class of 2012.  After six years of constantly higher CPI measurements, the 3.6 percentage point drop to 62.5% for the Class of 2013, a measurement lower than any class since 2009, is a stern warning that things are not well now in Dallas ISD.  (CPI also dropped over 15 percentage points under Mike Miles in Harrison!)

=========================================

 

The above data and details make up two sides of a handout that will be circulated as "home rule" is being considered.   We must return to, and exceed, the rate of improvement that happened 2007 to 2012!  Any questions about the above data, especially if you see errors, are welcome!

Two puzzling questions must be included in any discussion before any "home rule" gamble is taken. 
First, why was the flexibility given public schools with House Bill 5 not given more time to be explored in Dallas before this  "home rule" alternative was presented?  
Second, why are HB 5 alternatives not being actively acknowledged and discussed during this debate?

Bill Betzen
bbetzen@aol.com



DISD Home-Rule effort based on incomplete data

The Home-Rule effort for DISD is living within a mass of incomplete data.

White Flight dominated DISD enrollment numbers for the first 40 years after 1970! 

1970-2013 Dallas ISD Demographics & Graduation History
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

Notice that in 2010 something changed.  For the first time in 40 years, from 300 to as many as 8,000 White students did not leave DISD!  Instead the White student population grew by 25 students!  This change appears permanent based on numbers since 2010. 

Graduation rate records were being established starting in 2006.  DISD was very public with these achievements. Why are they suddenly being ignored by those pushing the home-rule effort?  This massive graduation rate progress has been verified with multiple other calculations. The information clearly shows that DISD improved faster than the rest of Texas from 2007 to 2011: http://schoolarchive­­­­project.blogspot.­c­o­m­/2012/08/dalla­s-­is­d-­is-catching­-up­-wi­th-­all-of.h­tml

Mr. Morath is part of this "see no progress" strategy.  He alleged there has been no improvement in college ready rates since 1996.  He spoke of the 7% college-ready rate in 1996 only growing to 8.1% by 2012. He forgot to consider the over 20 percentage point increase in graduation rates from 1996 to 2012 which generate a 70% increase in college ready graduates!   The DISD student body has increased less than six percent during these same years.

Is that enough progress? Absolutely not!  But it is misleading the public to only give part of the data, and then declare there has been "almost no progress for an entire generation," as Mr. Morath did in a Q & A session published by the Morning News this weekend.  

The refusal to acknowledge the progress within DISD by those pushing the home-rule movement is certainly not helping middle class enrollment in DISD to grow.  The Dallas Morning News must publish corrections to these data errors and omissions by those pushing the home rule effort! 

If current trends continue, and especially if the planned teacher evaluation system is implemented with no changes, no true input from teachers, DISD may have a second year of record setting 20% teacher turnover! 

Teacher/student relationships are the core of any educational success.  Repeated evidence, and statements by current DISD administration, indicate such long-term relationships are not the central focus of current DISD educational plans.

Can Dallas ignore what happened in 2013 in DISD?  It reflects some of the damage that has happened since the summer of 2012.  It shows some of the damage from ignoring teacher/student relationships.   It is reflected in the largest 12th grade enrollment drop for DISD in 29 years!  This loss is the same type of 12th grade enrollment loss that followed Mr. Miles the last 4 years he was superintendent in Colorado.   His high schools lost over 32% of their 12th grade enrollment during those 4 years.  The good news is that the remaining students provided a two point increase in average ACT scores for the district.   The bad news is that most of the leaving students went to District 11 north of Mr. Miles' district, and their average ACT scores went down.

The issue is not home rule in Dallas.  The issue is paying attention to the data and making decisions accordingly.   For some reason those pushing home rule only want Dallas to focus on a certain set of data, and ignore much of what has happened, and is happening.