Friday, November 8, 2013

Dallas ISD Student Attrition Explodes! - as in the last district Mike Miles managed.

This school year, 2013/14, is the first school year in 7 years that DISD did not have a senior class that was larger than the previous years' class.  The tragedy is that this years' senior class is so small it represents both a 6% loss in enrollment and the largest loss of senior DISD enrollment in 29 years!   Why is the media not covering this tragedy?

Senior enrollment for the Class of 2014 has dropped by 531 students below the enrollment for the Class of 2013, over a 6.34% drop!  (NOTE: this is the result using DISD data from the DISD My Data web pages showing a 8,382 senior class enrollment for 2012/13.  The 2012/13 senior enrollment according to the PEIMS Standard Reports from the Texas Education Agency web site is lower than the DISD count by 34 students at 8,348. Either way the trend is the same, a disaster!)  This is the first drop in DISD senior enrollment since 2006/07.  

The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) is a graduation rate measurement that is among the most predictive, timely, and the least vulnerable to manipulation.  The CPI for Dallas ISD has now dropped to 62.5% for a drop of  3.6 percentage points!  This is also the first drop since a dramatic rise in CPI started in 2005/06 when this rate was only 40.7%.  Since then it has constantly gone higher until last year when a CPI of 66.1% was achieved.  Now DISD suddenly drops 3.6 percentage points.

Below is a chart with the data.  Click on it to enlarge it.   Excel copies are available.  Email and describe the report you want.  Corrections and comments are welcomed!

2003-2014 Dallas ISD Enrollment by Grade
Click on above image to enlarge, or download, to study.
The major reason for concern is that these same student attrition patterns happened in Colorado Springs when Mr. Miles was Superintendent over Harrison School District Two from 2006 to 2012, just before coming to Dallas. While it took 16 months for the senior losses to show up in Dallas after Mr. Miles started, in Harrison it took two years longer.  Once they started in Harrison School District Two, within 4 years 1/3 of the Harrison senior class had been lost!  The total high school student enrollment loss was 26%!

While the Dallas CPI rose a total of 25.1 percentage points from 2006 to 2012, to the high of 66.1%, in Harrison District in Colorado the CPI went down 15.2 percentage points.  Then Mr. Miles comes to Dallas and CPI improvements stopped for Dallas ISD.  Within 16 months of his arrival the CPI went down for the first time in 7 years, going down 3.6 percentage points.

How long will Dallas allow this deterioration to continue?  See the Colorado data at .

No drop in senior class enrollment larger than 531 students can be found in DISD History until you get back to 1984.  That year, 1984, DISD lost 825 seniors.

Dallas ISD is facing a crisis now, in 2013!

(In 1984 DISD also lost 1,544 Anglo students from total enrollment as White-flight was slowing down, never loosing that many Anglo students again.  Many years of much greater annual loss of Anglo students had preceded 1984. The healing process finally led to 2009 being the first year with an actual increase in Anglo enrollment in DISD. See the enrollment chart going back to 1970.)