Best Five Years for Dallas ISD Graduation Rate: 2008-2012

Best Five Years for Dallas ISD Graduation Rate on Record: 2008-2012
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

The above chart contains data taken from the two charts below that together cover the past 18 years.  One confusing factor is that the above chart contains a sixth measurement that the first chart below did not contain: the comparison of current 12th grade enrollment with current 9th grade enrollment.  This measurement is a short hand way to look at school enrollment and know how their graduation rate is doing.   See more details below these two charts.



Click on either of the above charts to enlarge them and/or to print them. 
Please note that the CPI measurement for the Class of 2013 is lower in the above chart than it is in the first chart above.  This is due to two different counts for the 12th grade enrollment for 2013.  The DISD Data Portal gives a count, that is 50 students higher than the TEA count.  The Data Portal count was used in the third chart, immediately above.

Record Setting Dallas ISD Graduation Rate Progress 2008-2012, then it stopped!

1.      From 2007 to 2012 Dallas ISD enjoyed the five most progressive years of achievement in memory!  While DISD "college ready" rates edged up far too slowly, all of the graduation rate measurements soared!  Here is a 2008 report given to the DISD Board the shows the plans made in cooperation with Dallas Achieves for DISD.  They will sound very familiar.  2008 was the first year of 5 record years of progress!

2.      This combination increased the number of college ready graduates over 60% from 1996 to 2012, during years that Anglo-non-Hispanic enrollment in Dallas ISD dropped 60%.

3.      Dallas ISD graduation rates improved faster than the rest of the state of Texas in all demographic groups served from 2007 to 2011.  See the set of 12 graphs posted on the Dallas ISD web site in 2012. They are linked from the bottom of the page at the first hit when you google "Dallas ISD's graduation and dropout rates"

4.      Since 2012, under Mike Miles, the graduation rate progress has stopped.  This is illustrated by 6 measurements related to graduation rate and student movement on the above chart, and the fact that this year DISD suffered the greatest drop in 12^th grade enrollment suffered in 29 years!

When any of these six measurements are in a cell with a red, or grey, background in the chart that means the number has gone down and progress has been lost since the previous school year. 

Six measurements: row 6 to row 11 in the first chart above

·         Row 6: “% 9^th Grade Bulge Gone” reflects how well 8^th graders are prepared for 9^th grade work, and how well 9^th graders are managed, so as to not repeat 9^th grade.   For over 30 years the so-called “ninth grade bulge” has cursed school districts across Texas, especially urban districts.  For decades DISD would have only 11,000 students in the 8^th grade but would then have more than 14,000 9^th graders due to failures.  This bulge was slowly eliminated from 2007 to 2011! That progress stopped during the 2012/13 school year! It appears DISD is going backward according to measurements for the current 2013/14 school year.  The formula used is the 8th grade enrollment as a percentage of 9th grade enrollment (8th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 7: “Last year’s 9^th now in 10^th” reflects the reality that for decades most dropouts never made it to the 10^th grade. That is no longer true! DISD passed the 70% barrier in 2009 for this measurement for the first time, and has never gone back that low. This is a measurement that continued to improve though this year.  It is now over 89%!  The formula used is 10th grade enrollment as a percentage of the 9th grade enrollment (10th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment). 

·         Row 8: “Current 12^th as % 9th" is a short-hand measurement of how a school is doing with their graduation rate.  Just compare 12^th grade enrollment with 9^th grade enrollment at any school any time.  The bigger the difference the greater the problem.  For decades DISD had total senior enrollment that represented less than half the 9^th grade enrollment.  DISD passed this 50% barrier during the 2007/08 school year, zoomed up to 73.8% by 2011/12, but has now reverted back to pre-2010 levels! The formula use is the current 12th grade enrollment as a percentage of current 9th grade enrollment (12th grade enrollment/9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 9: “Promotion Rate” is a measurements widely used by the John Hopkins University Professor John Balfanz and colleagues who established the term “Dropout Factory” back in 2007 using this measurement formula.  At that time all DISD non-magnet high schools were classified as “dropout factories.”  That is no longer true due to significant progress made! The formula used is the current full 12th grade enrollment as a percentage of the original full 9th grade enrollment the year that cohort was in the 9th grade (current 12th grade enrollment/original full 9th grade enrollment).

·         Row 10: “Graduation Rate” passed the 50% barrier for the first time with the Class of 2011.  Due to the progress eliminating the 9^th grade bulge, the 60% barrier will probably be passed this year in DISD unless progress deteriorates more than anticipated.  The formula used is the number of diplomas given out as a percentage of the original full 9th grade enrollment the year that cohort was in the 9th grade (Diplomas given/original full 9th grade enrollment

·         Row 11: "CPI - Cumulative Promotion Index" is the most valuable measurement.  It’s the most timely, complete, and predictive.  It shows what is happening now, and what may happen in the near future. The CPI only uses measurements collected within one calendar year for each of the four student groups in any high school: 9^th graders moving to 10th grade, 10^th moving to 11^th, 11^th moving to 12^th and 12th graders who graduate.  The DISD CPI rose from 40.7% for the Class of 2006 to 66.1% for the Class of 2012!  After six years of constantly higher CPI measurements, the 3.6 percentage point drop to 62.5% for the Class of 2013, a measurement lower than any class since 2009, is a stern warning that things are not well now in Dallas ISD.  (CPI also dropped over 15 percentage points under Mike Miles in Harrison!)  The formula only uses enrollment and graduation numbers from the current 12 month period comparing last years enrollment with this years in the following formula: (current 10th grade enrollment/last years 9th grade enrollment) x (current 11th grade enrollment/last years 10th grade enrollment) x (current 12th grade enrollment/last years 11th grade enrollment) x (last years graduation numbers/last years 12th grade enrollment) = Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) for last years graduation class.

If there are any comments or questions about any of the above data please email Bill Betzen at bbetzen@aol.com.   Your comments are valued.

3-19-14
Bill Betzen

Dallas ISD Record Setting Progress 2007-2012 was stopped in 2013!

From 2007 to 2012 Dallas ISD enjoyed the five most progressive years of achievement in the memory of anyone now living! 

Dallas ISD Progress from 2007 to 2012 that stopped in 2013!
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

While DISD "college ready" rates edged up far too slowly, all of the graduation rate measurements soared!  This combination increased the number of college ready graduates over 60% from 1996 to 2012, during the same years that Anglo-non-Hispanic enrollment in Dallas ISD dropped 60%.

Dallas ISD graduation rates improved faster than the rest of the state of Texas in all demographic groups served from 2007 to 2011. This is well documented by a set of 12 graphs posted on the Dallas ISD web site in 2012.   They are linked from the bottom of the page at the first hit on the DISD web site when you google "Dallas ISD's graduation and dropout rates"

Sadly this monumental progress ended in 2012.  Since 2012 the rate of progress has reverted to a struggle similar to the one DISD was having prior to 2007.   This is illustrated by tracking the ups and downs of 6 different measurements of student movement in the above chart.  It covers each academic year for the past 12 years.

When any of these six measurements are in a cell with a red, or grey, background that means the number has gone down and progress has been lost since the previous school year.  Notice that the years from 2007 to 2012 were filled with 29 out of 30 measurements that were all improvements from the previous school year!  Both before 2007 and since 2012 the mixture of positive and negative measurements is mixed about 50/50.  The 5 years from 2007 to 2012 were the most productive years for graduation rate progress in the history of DISD!

Since 2012 it appears this progress in Dallas ISD has ended.

Six measurements from row 16 to row 21 in the above chart:

Row 16: “Bulge reduction - last year’s 8th as a percentage of current 9th” is a measurement that reflects how well 8^th graders are prepared for 9^th grade work, and how well 9^th graders are managed, so as to not repeat 9^th grade.   For over 30 years the so-called “ninth grade bulge” has cursed school districts across Texas, especially urban districts.  For decades DISD would have only 11,000 students in the 8^th grade but would then have more than 14,000 9^th graders due to failures.  This bulge was slowly eliminated from 2007 to 2011! That progress stopped during the 2012/13 school year and it appears DISD is going backward according to measurements for the current 2013/14 school year.

Row 17: “Percent of last yrs 9^th grade in current 10^th” reflects the reality that for decades most dropouts never made it to the 10^th grade. That is no longer true. DISD passed the 70% barrier in 2009 for this measurement for the first time, and has never gone back that low. This is a measurement that continued to improve though this year.  It is now over 89%!

Row 18: “12^th as a percent of 9th, all same year" is a short-hand measurement of how a school is doing with their graduation rate.  Just compare 12^th grade enrollment with 9^th grade enrollment at any school.  The bigger the difference the greater the problem.  For decades DISD had total senior enrollment that represented less than half the 9^th grade enrollment.  DISD passed the 50% barrier during the 2007/08 school year, zoomed up to 73.8% by 2011/12, but has now reverted back to pre-2010 levels!

Row 19: “Promotion Rate: 12^th grade enrollment as a percentage of original full 9^th grade enrollment” is a measurements widely used by the John Hopkins University Professor John Balfanz and colleagues who established the term “Dropout Factory” back in 2007 using this measurement formula.  At that time all DISD non-magnet high schools were classified as “dropout factories.”  That is no longer true due to significant progress made.

Row 20: “Graduation Rate: Diplomas as a percentage of original full 9^th grade enrollment” passed the 50% barrier for the first time with the Class of 2011.  Due to the progress eliminating the 9^th grade bulge, the 60% barrier will probably be passed this year in DISD unless progress deteriorates more than anticipated.

Row 21: "CPI Cumulative Promotion Index" is the most valuable of all six measurements.  It’s the most timely, complete, and predictive.  It shows what is happening now, and what may happen in the near future. The CPI only uses measurements collected within one calendar year for each of the four student groups in any high school: 9^th graders moving to 10th grade, 10^th moving to 11^th, 11^th moving to 12^th and 12th graders who graduate.  The DISD CPI rose from 40.7% for the Class of 2006 to 66.1% for the Class of 2012.  After six years of constantly higher CPI measurements, the 3.6 percentage point drop to 62.5% for the Class of 2013, a measurement lower than any class since 2009, is a stern warning that things are not well now in Dallas ISD.  (CPI also dropped over 15 percentage points under Mike Miles in Harrison!)

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The above data and details make up two sides of a handout that will be circulated as "home rule" is being considered.   We must return to, and exceed, the rate of improvement that happened 2007 to 2012!  Any questions about the above data, especially if you see errors, are welcome!

Two puzzling questions must be included in any discussion before any "home rule" gamble is taken. 
First, why was the flexibility given public schools with House Bill 5 not given more time to be explored in Dallas before this  "home rule" alternative was presented?  
Second, why are HB 5 alternatives not being actively acknowledged and discussed during this debate?

Bill Betzen
bbetzen@aol.com



DISD Home-Rule effort based on incomplete data

The Home-Rule effort for DISD is living within a mass of incomplete data.

White Flight dominated DISD enrollment numbers for the first 40 years after 1970! 

1970-2013 Dallas ISD Demographics & Graduation History
(Click on above chart to enlarge and/or print.)

Notice that in 2010 something changed.  For the first time in 40 years, from 300 to as many as 8,000 White students did not leave DISD!  Instead the White student population grew by 25 students!  This change appears permanent based on numbers since 2010. 

Graduation rate records were being established starting in 2006.  DISD was very public with these achievements. Why are they suddenly being ignored by those pushing the home-rule effort?  This massive graduation rate progress has been verified with multiple other calculations. The information clearly shows that DISD improved faster than the rest of Texas from 2007 to 2011: http://schoolarchive­­­­project.blogspot.­c­o­m­/2012/08/dalla­s-­is­d-­is-catching­-up­-wi­th-­all-of.h­tml

Mr. Morath is part of this "see no progress" strategy.  He alleged there has been no improvement in college ready rates since 1996.  He spoke of the 7% college-ready rate in 1996 only growing to 8.1% by 2012. He forgot to consider the over 20 percentage point increase in graduation rates from 1996 to 2012 which generate a 70% increase in college ready graduates!   The DISD student body has increased less than six percent during these same years.

Is that enough progress? Absolutely not!  But it is misleading the public to only give part of the data, and then declare there has been "almost no progress for an entire generation," as Mr. Morath did in a Q & A session published by the Morning News this weekend.  

The refusal to acknowledge the progress within DISD by those pushing the home-rule movement is certainly not helping middle class enrollment in DISD to grow.  The Dallas Morning News must publish corrections to these data errors and omissions by those pushing the home rule effort! 

If current trends continue, and especially if the planned teacher evaluation system is implemented with no changes, no true input from teachers, DISD may have a second year of record setting 20% teacher turnover! 

Teacher/student relationships are the core of any educational success.  Repeated evidence, and statements by current DISD administration, indicate such long-term relationships are not the central focus of current DISD educational plans.

Can Dallas ignore what happened in 2013 in DISD?  It reflects some of the damage that has happened since the summer of 2012.  It shows some of the damage from ignoring teacher/student relationships.   It is reflected in the largest 12th grade enrollment drop for DISD in 29 years!  This loss is the same type of 12th grade enrollment loss that followed Mr. Miles the last 4 years he was superintendent in Colorado.   His high schools lost over 32% of their 12th grade enrollment during those 4 years.  The good news is that the remaining students provided a two point increase in average ACT scores for the district.   The bad news is that most of the leaving students went to District 11 north of Mr. Miles' district, and their average ACT scores went down.

The issue is not home rule in Dallas.  The issue is paying attention to the data and making decisions accordingly.   For some reason those pushing home rule only want Dallas to focus on a certain set of data, and ignore much of what has happened, and is happening.

Training students for what machines can't do?

In today’s print addition of the New York Times, on page A19, there is an excellent opinion piece by David Brooks titled: “What Machines Can’t Do.”   It is online at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/04/opinion/brooks-what-machines-cant-do.html?hpw&rref=opinion&_r=0 .

This article addresses the work now being done by automation and the abilities that workers in our ever changing world will need in such a world.  It leaves painful questions as to how current public schools are meeting that need.   It affirms that “… the age of brilliant machines seems to reward a few traits. First, it rewards enthusiasm….  Second, the era seems to reward people with extended time horizons and strategic discipline.”

How is a public school system dominated by multiple choice tests even thinking about reinforcing such critical abilities in our students? 

How do multiple choice tests focus students on their own goals, and the ability to constantly modify those goals, and the critical goal of maintaining focus to achieve those goals?

David Brooks is pointing to a very painful question for US public education in 2014!

Minority presence down in Booker T. Washington Arts Magnet in Dallas

When my children attended Booker T. Washington High School for the Performing and Visual Arts (BTW) starting at the end of the1980's, the understanding was that the school was a magnet school working to achieve a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 racial balance.   While that allowed for an over-representation for the about 19% of students within DISD at the time who were Anglo, that was considered acceptable for a magnet working to achieve racial balance in DISD.   Here is a chart that gives the history of racial balance within Dallas ISD since 1970:

Racial and Ethnic balance within Dallas ISD 1970 to 2013

(Click on above chart to enlarge or print.)

Sadly since those "good old days" the ethnic balance both within DISD and within BTW have moved in opposite directions to the point that now Dallas ISD is only 4.6% Anglo, and a disproportionate percentage of that 4.6% of Anglo students are in the magnet schools which are some of the best high schools in the nation.  Currently 59% of the freshman class at BTW is "White" according to DISD records.

The current enrollment for DISD can be seen on the Dallas ISD web site at  https://mydata.dallasisd.org/ .   On that page click on the "Statistics and Reports" tab at the top of the page.  Then click on "Enrollment," the first choice in the drop-down menu.  You will immediately see the statistics as of this week for DISD by grade and by ethnic group. 

Just under the DISD logo on that page you see a small link to help find any school in DISD.   It says  List Schools .  It takes you to an alphabetical listing of all schools by Division.   BTW is in Division 3.  Click on BTW ARTS - 34 and you will see the same data for BTW that was listed for all of DISD.  Currently BTW is 48.6% "White."   However, to see the direction BTW is going, look at the 9th grade class.  It has 129 "White" students making the 9th grade class 59.2% "White." 

Since there are only a total of 554 "White" 9th grade students in all of DISD, this means that 23.3% of all Anglo 9th grade students in DISD are attending just one school, BTW.   Meanwhile 48, or 6/10ths of one percent, of the 7,490 Hispanic 9th grade students in DISD are attending BTW and 35, or 1.3%, of the 2,601 Black 9th grade students in DISD are attending BTW.  

The relative balance from the 1980's of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 has been lost.   It is also reported that as many as 150 students at BTW are from outside Dallas ISD.   I am now doing an open records request to ask what that percentage is, and also to determine what percentage of BTW students even attended DISD before entering one of our prime schools rated as one of the best in the nation. 

Another point, while DISD has a student body that has over 82% of all students on free or reduced lunch programs due to poverty, BTW 9th grade class only has 16% who are on the free or reduced lunch program.

Racial & Ethnic Balance at Booker T. Washington Arts Magnet, Dallas(Click on chart to enlarge.)

Question for Mike Miles demanding an answer in 2014

Multiple times Mike Miles has been responsible for student groups that were somehow reduced in size before testing that then showed rising grade averages compared to the previous larger group.

These incidents started with the Harrison School District Two Class of 2009, the first year with a smaller 12^th grade enrollment than the previous year.  This process of smaller 12^th grade enrollments continued past the Harrison Class of 2012, by which time the 12^th grade enrollment had shrunk by 32%, but average ACT scores had gone up!   See details at http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2013/05/damage-by-mike-miles-in-colorado.html

Meanwhile over at School District 11, to the north of Harrison School District Two, they were accepting a majority of Harrison 12^th graders who were leaving under some apparent pressure.  The District 11 ACT scores went down.

Another incident happened in Dallas ISD with the first ACT testing after Mike Miles had started as DISD superintendent.  The percentage of minority students taking the ACT went down by over 23% following a 5 year history of this percentage constantly rising an average of 17 percentage points.   DISD reported the results of this test as showing a full point rise from 17 to 18 on the ACT.   However, upon closer study, the real change reported, as they had been reported for years with one point more of precision, was a change from 17.2 to 17.6.  See details at http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2013/10/does-race-guide-how-disd-treats-students.html

The most recent incident was the NAEP testing under Mike Miles this past year.   The results were released and reported on December 18, 2013 in the Dallas Morning News with the headline:  “Compared to other big-city districts, Dallas ISD is on par in math, lags in reading” Mike Miles was quoted in the article as having called the results encouraging: “They showed increases in areas where we needed to make gains and confirm that Dallas ISD is making steady progress toward increasing student achievement levels”

However, what was not released by DISD, nor reported on by the Dallas Morning News, was that DISD had failed to test all students.  In another national publication it was reported:  “Then there’s Dallas Independent School District. It excluded 36 percent of fourth-graders in special ed ghettos from NAEP; it also excluded 30 percent of fourth-graders in ELL ghettos. These high levels of exclusions may explain why Dallas managed to reduce the percentage of fourth-graders reading Below Basic by three percentage points between 2011 and 2013. Dallas also excluded 26 percent of eighth-graders in special ed ghettos…”   This is reported from http://dropoutnation.net/2013/12/19/naep-dishonor-roll-urban-edition/

The current incident, still in process, involves the DISD Class of 2013, the last graduation class benefiting from the ongoing progress being made before July 2012.  It was the largest DISD graduation class in 31 years!  Changes by Mr. Miles started quickly showing in the Class of 2014. In November of 2013 the official enrollment count for the Class of 2014 recorded the greatest year to year drop in 12th grade enrollment in 29 years!  The Class of 2014 enrollment had lost over 530 students compared with the Class of 2013 enrollment!   Consistent with Mr. Miles history of reducing 12th grade enrollment, the remaining students in the Class of 2014 should provide college ready testing scores that are higher than the Class of 2013.   See more details at http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2013/12/blog-post.html

These multiple incidents each involve reductions in the number of students being tested, apparently so as to eliminate lower scoring populations.  It appears to be a critical part of the strategy used by Mike Miles to increase the average test scores for students under his supervision. 

The question for Mr. Miles is:

 "Mr. Miles, how often have you raised college readiness grade averages and senior class sizes at the same time, compared with the number of times those class sizes dropped, in your career?"

To provide more detail it should also be asked:

"Is it true there is a correlation between higher college readiness test grade improvements happening when class sizes dropped the most during your years as a district superintendent?" 

(Note: since both Colorado Springs and Dallas were/are growing during his years, growing senior classes should be normal.)

Can Dallas ignore what happened in 2013 in DISD?

The DISD Class of 2013 was the last graduation class benefiting from the ongoing progress being made before July 2012.  It was also the largest DISD graduation class in 31 years! 

Then, in November 2013, things rapidly changed.  The official enrollment count for the Class of 2014 recorded the greatest drop year to year in 12th grade enrollment in 29 years!  The Class of 2014 enrollment had lost over 530 students compared with the Class of 2013 enrollment!  What suddenly started happening in DISD?

Dallas ISD Graduation Demographics 1970-2014
(Click on chart to enlarge/print)

Is this record loss in Dallas ISD 12th grade enrollment in any way related to the identical losses that were created in the Harrison School District Two during the last 4 years that Mike Miles was Harrison Superintendent?   During those four years the 12th grade enrollment was constantly dropping while elementary enrollment was constantly rising.  Total district enrollment was therefore stable while 12th grade enrollment dropped over 32% under Mr. Miles.

How was this loss in 12th grade enrollment related to Mr. Miles strategy to develop a core of students with higher grade averages on college readiness tests?  Was he attempting to eliminate low scoring students, students who were not adequately prepared for the next grade? Was that strategy also a factor in the large number of Harrison seniors who transferred to Colorado Springs District 11, to the north of Harrison, where college readiness scores suddenly went down?  

How is this strategy for raising college readiness grade averages substantially different from the "disappeared student" strategy judged by the courts to have been used in El Paso by the now incarcerated former superintendent, Mr. Lorenzo Garcia?