While the number of births in the City of Dallas dropped 11.5% from 2007 to 2010, the number of births in Texas dropped by 5.6%. For Texas this was a drop from 17.0 births per thousand to only 15.3 births per thousand population. See data at http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/vstat/vs10/t01.shtm where it shows that only 385,746 babies were born in Texas in 2010. Since there are multiple indications that immigration into Texas has slowed down, it is very possible Texas will not have enough first graders in 2016 to go above the 2011-12 first grade enrollment record of 392,276. The 2012-13 first grade enrollment may set a new record for Texas, but birth rates indicate that 2012-13 enrollment may remain the record for the next several years, unless immigration reductions are not as significant as some estimates say.
From 2007 to 2010 the birth rate per 1,000 population for the entire U.S dropped from 14.3 to 13.5, the lowest birth rate in a century for the U.S.. While the Texas birth rate dropped 1.7 percentage points, from 17.0 to 15.3, the U.S. dropped .8 percentage points, half as much as the drop in Texas. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Birth_rate ) If this rate of change in Texas continues, Texas will achieve the same low birth rate of the rest of the US within a few years. It is even possible that by now, 2012, Texas may have already dropped below a replacement birth rate and is below a 14% birth rate.
If you googled news for "birth rate" on 7-29-12 there were over 52 hits within the previous 48 hours. Here is an example of one of the headlines: "Birth Rate Plunges, Projected To Reach Lowest Level In Decades."
11-18-12 update: Googling "birth rate" today showed that two weeks ago multiple headlines reflected that the US now has the lowest recorded birth rate in history. The replacement rate required for a stable population is 2.1 babies per woman. The current birth rate is 1.9 and therefore below the replacement rate.
