Sunday, August 12, 2012

Graduation Rate Dangers, Texas & Dallas

The progress appears to be ending in both Dallas ISD and in all Texas public schools since 2011 and the education cuts. 
Cumulative Promotion Index improvement from the previous year in Texas & Dallas
from 2006 to 2011
(Right-click on above image to enlarge and/or print.)
The graph above shows similar annual improvement patterns for both DISD and all of Texas.  The only difference is that Dallas ISD improved more each year since 2006 than the rest of Texas!

By 10/20/10 a total of $3,978,383,814 in State Fiscal Stabilization funds had been awarded to Texas to be invested in education. It was a factor in the 2009 and 2010 improvements seen in this graph.  Then the loss of thousands of teachers started in 2011 when that year's Texas Legislature cut $5.4 billion from Texas education funds. The children counted the end of October 2011 were in more crowded classrooms, and it appears that the student numbers in those classrooms had stopped improving.  Those were the students numbers used in calculating the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) for 2010-2011.  The 2010/11 CPI almost stopped the improvements from previous years, but was not yet a negative number.

The loss of teachers due to budget continued and by this November of 2012 we will know if the 2011-2012 CPI goes up or down from last year.

The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) is the most timely and predictive of the graduation rate measurements.  It only uses student enrollment figures from within the current calendar year, unlike other graduation rate measurements that spread out over as much as four years.  The CPI includes the movements of four groups: that year's 9th graders to the next year's 10th grade, that year's 10th grade to the next year's 11th grade, that year's 11th grade to next year's 12th grade, and that year's 12th graders who make it to graduation that year.  This gives a more timely measurement that better reflects what is happening in the school that year.

The enrollment data and CPI calculations used in the above chart come from two similar charts, one for Texas and one for Dallas.  You can find the chart for Texas at the bottom of the posting at .  The chart for Dallas from which the same CPI measurements were taken can be found at .  The data source for enrollment data used for both Texas and Dallas is the Texas Education Agency Reports Page at .

Pray that the enrollment data secured at the end of October will show CPI improvements for both Dallas, and all of Texas. The progress in student achievement must continue!  (Note: Texas statewide data is not available to the public until March of 2013 so that will delay the calculations for Texas.)