Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Dallas ISD Graduation Rate Measurements Falling

The graduation rate for DISD is falling. The many measurements indicating this tragedy cannot be ignored.  Here is the spreadsheet with today's (10-15-13) enrollment numbers inserted.  The "official" 2013/14 enrollment numbers will be frozen in about two weeks.
Dallas ISD Enrollment 2002/03 to 2013/14
Click on above spreadsheet to enlarge and/or print.

Excel copies are available if requested from bbetzen@aol.com.

The 12th grade enrollment has fallen 5.5%, not going up for the first time in 7 years.  Instead our enrollment has fallen back 4 years to the level of the Class of 2010.  This is in spite of the fact that total DISD enrollment is up over 2,500 students.  The 12th grade enrollment is down over 500 students from last year! 

Since the original 9th grade enrollment for the Class of 2014 was over 1,100 students fewer than the Class of 2013, it is very probable that using the 9th grade cohort formula for graduation rate, once we know how many actually received diplomas for the Class of 2014, that there will still be a rise in graduation rate this year.  But please note that last year this 1,100 student difference in the 9th grade enrollment between these two classes had been reduced to only 116 students by the 11th grade due to the good work of 9th grade coordinators and DISD staff in general.  Now that 116 difference has exploded to over a 500 student difference indicating significant deterioration within the past year!

For the first time in 7 years the Cumulative Promotion Index has fallen for DISD!  The CPI measurement has fallen back to 2009 levels.  This most timely and predictive of all graduation rate measurements indicates the damage now happening by increased student attrition within DISD. A fall in the CPI indicates that somewhere along the 4 movements toward graduation (9th to 10th, 10th to 11th, 11th to 12th, and 12th to graduation) significantly fewer students were making the transition over the past 12 months since the official 2012/13 enrollment count.  Motivation is suffering. Parents feel abandoned by the schools.  Students are leaving as they reach senior year. 

We are in danger of loosing much of the progress DISD made over the past 7 years.   We must not repeat what happened in Harrison School District Two in Colorado where they lost 33% of their senior class and 26% of their high school enrollment over the 6 years from 2006 to 2012.  Their CPI fell 15 percentage points!

These numbers represent children.  In Dallas they represent many more hundreds of children, if not thousands.