Friday, October 11, 2013

Mike Miles' Resume & Worsening Student Attrition

Mike Miles Resume History Focusing on Student Attrition
Click on above image to enlarge.

Far too many indications are now appearing in Dallas ISD that the student attrition explosion that happened in Harrison School District Two in Colorado Springs under Mike Miles is now beginning in Dallas:
  1. For the first time since 2006 the senior class is not only not growing but it has shrunk over 6%.  The current loss is over 450 students!
  2. For the first time since 2009 documented discipline problems are going up and going up significantly with a 26% increase. Such changes usually indicate students will be leaving, as they left in Harrison.
  3. For the first time since 2006 the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) measurement, the most valuable of dropout rate predictors, has not improved but has actually gone down! With today's data it is calculated as 63.4%, but needs to be recalculated with the more offical enrollment data at the end of this month, the time of the normal annual count. This 63.4% is a drop of over two percentage points for 2013, back to pre-2010 levels! The CPI dropped over 15 points in the 6 years Miles was at Harrison.
These measurements are all predictors of a growing dropout rate and a shrinking DISD graduation rate for the first time since 2006!  See more data and details at .

To see the current reasons for alarm one only needs to compare the following 17 year enrollment by grade history of Dallas ISD with current enrollment.
Dallas ISD Enrollment by Grade from 1996 to 2013
Click on above chart to enlarge or print.
The current DISD student enrollment by grade, usually from the previous school day, can be found at:

At the end of October, or the first week of November, this enrollment count is frozen to become the "official" annual enrollment count.  It then is used in the above spreadsheet and many others places as the official annual enrollment count.   Notice how the Class of 2013 had a 8,348 student 12th grade count which has now dropped to only 7,895 for the Class of 2014, a loss of 453 seniors as of today!  The 11th grade differences between these two classes was only 116 students.

The improving graduation rate with growing 12th grade classes since 2006 has suddenly ended! Why?

Email if you want a copy of any of these spreadsheets to check, including the one not yet posted with the 2013/14 data as of today, used to get a CPI estimate of 63.4%.  It will probably change with the official enrollment counts at the end of the month, but not much. Critical readings are priceless for this work! Errors happen and must be minimized.