Dallas ISD Enrollment History up to 2014 (Click above image to enlarge.) |
Regarding the data on the above chart, see http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/2014/03/best-five-years-for-dallas-isd.html for a details & sources for this data.
As shown in the above chart, the growth in the Cumulative Promotion Index has
almost stopped, the best predictor of future change. Not specifically shown
above is the 500 student drop in 12th grade enrollment for the DISD
Class of 2014. The Class of 2014 will be the first class in 7 years that will be
smaller than the previous graduation class!
It may be smaller than any class since 2009 once the final numbers are
in. How far the 2014 CPI will drop will
not be known until November.
The
history of 12th grade enrollment loss under Mike Miles, ultimately
shrinking graduation classes, existed long before he came to Dallas. After two years of normal 12th
grade growth in his previous district, Harrison, that growth stopped in 2009. The Harrison Class of 2010
enrollment then dropped 7%, the Class of 2011 dropped 18%,
and the Class of 2012 dropped 11%. Finally the Class of
2013 dropped 12%, but by that time Mr. Miles was in Dallas where 6 years of
record 12th grade enrollment growth suddenly also stopped. Within
the year, the 12th grade enrollment for the Class of 2014 had
dropped 6%! This is the largest DISD 12th
grade enrollment drop in decades!All this data, both missing but anticipated, and that which we have, indicate DISD is heading for a disaster, with children involved and already suffering!